Sociology – Survive with Will – Thoughtful Analysis & Perceptions

How to Handle Raw Data from Sources

Will Hemingway — Thu, 30 Apr 2020 05:00:05 +0000

Executive Summary:

The raw data gathering process can be very arduous and time-consuming. Confidential sources are invaluable in the process. They can shear 50% of the time off of the data gathering load.

Never expose sources; if you do, you have to defend their integrity. You should process and verify the raw data independently.

Never forget:

Sources are unreliable
Sources are not professional data gatherers
Sources provide 80% normative data and 20% empirical data
The best sources are as bad or worse than your target
Sources almost always have a hidden agenda
Sources obfuscate their culpability
Sources exaggerate

The ONLY WAY TO USE A SOURCE is to take everything, and I mean everything that they offer. Then squeeze more, go granular. Thank them, sing their praises to them, and move away. Take copious notes. Immediately after, categorize and record all of the critical points of raw data; who, what, where, why, when. Do it while the moment is fresh in your mind. Make notes from your recollection of their inflection, when, about what. Note the exact wording of their normative statements of “fact.” Parse out the empirical data.

Supportive Detail:

Example: “I know Joe did it, I don’t know why, but he did. He is a bad guy. He got that supervisor job instead of Lenny because he is a snake. I saw him going out the door in the rear corner of the building. It is hidden behind the large racks, in a poorly lit area. When I was in that area to help find a sign that flew away, I saw several crushed boxes of those new micro camcorders that we lost a few weeks ago. I was so mad, I never liked Joe he is really arrogant and always hanging out and flirting with that girl in the shipping area. I saw a few of those camcorders in a pile on the opposite end of the warehouse the other day near the trucker’s lounge, and those stock guys are so lazy…… “

In the example, there is a plethora of raw data. It is mostly normative.

Normative Data (Subjective/Not Supported by Tangible Proof)

Joe did it
Joe is a bad guy – Source is “mad” at Joe and never liked him
The source is not happy that Joe is the supervisor
Lenny may have an ax to grind with Joe over job advancement
The source may have familial ties to Lenny
Source says that the stock guys are lazy

Empirical Data (Objective, Verifiable, Reproducible)

Source says Joe went out obscured rear door
Joe hangs out and flirts with a girl in the shipping area
Source says she saw a few of the missing camcorders in a pile near the trucker’s lounge

The empirical data is still raw, untested, unverified. The next step is to verify the raw data. That can be done by reviewing video surveillance, interviewing other personnel working in the same area, etc. Once the data is verified by more than one other independent source, it becomes more useful. It may be looked upon as base knowledge for use later in understanding more complex activities and decision making.

While the normative data may help you divine out motivations and connections between actors, it has no useful value in factual data. It is unscientific, subjective, and most commonly corrupted by emotional “feelings.”

The source’s data may provide varying levels of usefulness. Each additional data point can move you closer to the truth by turning your attention to things that you would not necessarily have known about or considered. As a skilled gatherer, you must hone your skills to parse the normative from the empirical. You must rapidly test and validate the empirical data, and discard any that fails the test.

Executive Conclusion:

Every day you intake loads of raw data in the form of news stories, twitter, Facebook, etc. feeds. You must strive to apply the approach of ignoring the source. Instead, make copious notes of the data points provided. Then identify, based upon the words chosen and the context, whether the data is normative or subjective. The more that you practice the skill, the more efficient and accurate that you will become. In no time, you will become much better at developing more reliable, validated assessments of complex matters.

I warn you though, as you master the skill, you will find that it will change how you look at the world, the people who you have known for years, and even those closest to you. It will pull back the veil on the world, which has always been right in front of you that you never knew existed. It can be quite shocking and end what you thought were friendships. I would simply say, you will be so much better off being able to protect yourself from the misdirection and obfuscation. I will also give you a new powerful tool to help you make better decisions and avoid those things that “just always happen to you.”

The Life Cycle of a Republic

Will Hemingway — Sun, 11 Nov 2018 18:40:23 +0000

The survival of the West and the USA depends on a return to respect for antiquity, history, the lessons that it teaches, and a respect for deferred pleasure in turn for community, innovation, success, and civility.

Hieronymus Bosch’s famous triptych painting "The garden of earthly delight". The outer panels are intended to bracket the main central panel between the Garden of Eden depicted on the left panel; all things in order, the center panel; unbridled freedom, opulence, debauchery, and the right panel depicted the Last Judgment; basically, hell or total destruction of all that was good. The triptych was a 16^th century dire warning on the perils of life's temptations

The Founding Fathers of the USA spent years studying the governmental forms and machinations of antiquity. They were especially influenced by the Athenian Republic. The nation was highly successful, affluent, and developed both tangible and intellectual wonders. The more success that a nation and its people enjoy, the more focused on self-interest and promiscuous behaviors. Although Bosch painted the Garden of Eden, around 1500 AD, it underscored the process our founding fathers understood. The Founding Fathers fully comprehended the self-destructive nature or unbridled freedoms.

The nearly unlimited freedoms afforded by a Republic fuels debauchery. Slowly altering the Republic into a Democracy. The Republic stands on the collective input of its people, deferring pleasure in return for stability and long-term happiness and civility. A democracy, where two wolves and one sheep vote on who is for dinner. As time goes on the democracy descends into anarchy and chaos. When the people are only focused on themselves there is no interest or the greater good or community. History proves the life cycle from Athenian and Roman culture to European and South American nations.

Whatever your personal beliefs about religion, few can argue the value of the community that it creates and the way that it binds its members together. Judeo Christian morals are tied to deferred pleasure. Those morals help to temper the natural human desire for immediate pleasure. Nothing great comes easily, progress, and long-term success is forged in tempered action and planning. With or without religion those values are the key to a lasting Republic.

Modernity, post-modern, and consumerism all exemplify a slide into immediate gratification. A nation whose people are obsessed with them will fail. All creativity, creation, development, and future planning is sacrificed for NOW! The USA is in the throws of that now. Our path to survival demands that we eradicate those preaching selfish immediate gratification. We must replace them with people who teach deferred pleasure in turn for great rewards down the road.

Civil Protest and Reasoned Civil Discourse

Will Hemingway — Sun, 14 Oct 2018 22:56:48 +0000

As a point of context I am a trained investigator. I specialized in combating organized intimidation protests by NGOs and domestic terror groups for 20 of my 30-year career.

There is a dangerous pattern of activities intensifying with each event in the USA. There has been an exponential increase in civil disobedience, intimidation protesting, and violent mob activity. There is no room for engaging in civil discourse when picketers blow air horns or yell over you when you speak. Such behaviors contribute nothing to changing hearts and minds.

The media and some politicians cloak these activities in a pseudo historical context mislabeling them as part of our history and as free speech and peaceful protest. In fact, prior to the 1970’s when police began being trained in “cultural sensitivity” and crowd control, every example of such behavior was met with Billy clubs, chemical CS (mace), and extreme force. We were a civil society where people actually had peaceful, respectful debate, and dialectic. Citizens of the USA coveted their individual rights to speak, publish, and present their ideas to stimulate change or thought.

NGO = Non Government Organizations

Beginning in the 1960’s the minions from Laurel Canyon in California, an araldite neighbor which also was the home of yielded a plethora of social and musical icons with clear links to military / intelligence, subversion / operations working from the military covert operations center located in Laurel Canyon, it was called Lookout Mountain Air Force Station (LMAFS) (now converted into a private residence. The station was involved in “producing motion pictures and still photographs for the USDOD and the Atomic Energy Commission. It influenced many of the most iconic and abhorrent personalities of the era to foment violent civil unrest, sow division in the society, and implement intimidation protests all over the country. What was the result? An increase in government surveillance powers and numerous infringements on civil and constitutional rights including the 1^st, 2^nd, and 4^th amendments. These operations are designed to play on the weakness of humanity. They instill fear into the people. The people in their fear beg the government to take their rights in return for the illusion of security. As it has been said, “Any man who surrenders his freedom for safety and security will neither receive nor deserve either.”

Checkout this book - Weird Scenes Inside The Canyon - Laurel Canyon, Covert Ops & The Dark Heart Of The Hippie Dream By David McGOWAN

The residents of Laurel Canyon ranged from Jim Morrison and Frank Zappa to David Crosby, Neil Young, and Charles Manson, they all spent a lot of time together and had direct ties to the intel community.

I have seen many times where NGOs organized a protest. They insert a small number of instigators and those instigators take the front line. The sheeple follow. After some hollow rhetoric they antagonize the opposing group members with maddening illogical tripe. They build frustration in the opponent’s minds, then generally one bad actor will covertly strike with one or two acts of physical battery. The act is happens so fast that it is innocuous even to those standing nearby. The assailant then recedes into the crowd. The opposition responds blindly and forcefully in self-defense with physical action. A glaring example of this formula is the incident at involving ANTIFA and Eric Canton, a professor with Antifa slipped forward in the crowd, smashed a Trump rally supporter on the head with a heavy steel bicycle lock, then he just melted away into the crowd. See the article (randomly chosen for the photo.) Click Here

Sadly, whatever you think about the sheeple, they are intentionally drawn into the line of violence. This pageant play is repeated all over the world by these paid organizers. They carefully orchestrate the melee. The organizers of the original offending protest assure that when the media interviews the “victims” of their group who were “attacked” by their opposition they can honestly say, “we were just peacefully protesting and “they” attacked us. Of course, in fact technically it was not them, but that they were set up by wrongdoers in their own group to be victimized. They don’t even see what happens right in front of them, people are oblivious. That is why Situational Awareness is Critical to your survival. See the article on my sister site - PracticePreparedness.com and the radio show on the subject too. Click Here

Over 20 years spent dealing with animal rights, environmental, and other protest groups we video recorded hundreds of intimidation and covert attack incidents. Going undercover into these organizations I sat through weeks of training / brainwashing classes where the NGOs were setting up people to “organize at the grassroots level”. Of course, they had offices in the center of the city where monthly rental was upside of $200,000 per year or more. The claim that the working groups of the NGOs were "Grassroots uprisings" was a total sham.

That said, it is crucial for our success and survival of our society that you understand how these groups work. Immediately identify the bad actors. Take their pictures, try to do it early, use video instead of stills, sweep the crowd. Mull about holding your smartphone up to get them and act like you are talking on the phone and looking a picture or something. Do it surreptitiously if possible. Do it way before the situation heats up. Hide the photos away or upload them to the cloud so you can pull them up immediately after an attack for the law enforcement to be able to find and arrest them. Play the video for law enforcement and freeze it on the actor for ID. Always backup the data for your own protection later.

These NGO organized groups have trained tactical Medics and organizers. Their primary goal is to create an incident that will allow the media to get a “gotcha moment” that will be used against you and your cause. Do not allow them to win at this game.

Finally, shed your ego when you go to these events. If you choose to engage the opposition, hold fast to facts, empirical data, suppress emotion, never yell, never name call, and never show fear. Shallow platitudes shrink against the light of truth. Analytical, unemotional responses which cause the opposition to question their rhetoric will leave far more lasting effects than any physical attack every would. Remember, when people exceed their intellect they turn to fisticuffs. Do not be baited into that position. It is through thoughtful discourse, a dialectic that we will survive, even with our differences in a free society. (See my article on Dialectic.) Click Here

This week I had the opportunity, again, to engage protesters at a conservative event in a small town. In my primary career I dealt with many people engaged in both peaceful and violent protests. Sadly, most of those protesting has no understanding of the machinations behind the scenes in such organized operations. Situational awareness is the key to protecting yourself if you have decided to protest. Often times, the threat may stem not from the opposition but from one within your own ranks. Civil Discourse and Dialectic are preferred over protest. Protest indicates that dialogue has been abandoned for shouting and sometimes violence. If your true goal is to influence hearts and minds arm yourself with facts and press forward with civil dialogue.

Language – The Glue That Binds a Society

Will Hemingway — Sun, 14 Oct 2018 03:39:45 +0000

Language – The Meanings of Words – Nomenclature

Summary:

If language is the glue that binds a nation’s people together, the meaning of those words is crucial to that bond. If the meaning of words is not fixed there is no hope for those utilizing them will successfully communicate with others.

It is important to verify your understanding of facts and terms before applying them with authority. Early in my radio hosting career, I endured a frustrating debate with a guest. At the end of the rather annoying debate, while on a commercial break, I asked the guest a question. The answer that he gave revealed that the guest did not know the meaning of the term which he took such an issue with. Ever since the expansion of people’s vocabularies has been a pet project of mine. I have tried to inspire people to verify the meaning of the terms that they believe they know, especially if they use them regularly with authority. My grandfather played a “game” with me every night before I left their house or before bed. He would have me randomly flip open the pages of his gigantic marble white leather-bound Funk & Wagnalls Dictionary. Then I would put my finger on a page. The word on which I placed my finger, randomly, would be our new word. We would put the new word to use as much as possible until our next meeting.

Detail:

My leather-bound, 1975 edition of, the New Webster’s Dictionary of the English Language provided the true definitions of the following words.

Nomenclature – “A system of names; the vocabulary of names or technical terms which are appropriated to a science, art, or other fields.”

Merriam-Webster Online – “a word or combination of words by which a person or thing is regularly known.”

While preparing for a radio show guest who I was interviewing next, I was performing my due diligence and fact-checking my points and lines of questioning. Part of the process was verifying proper nomenclature. It is far better to find an error in preparation than to embarrass yourself in front of a large audience. One of the terms was inflation. I searched it on Google. 96,300,000 results were found for the definition.

Investopedia said that inflation meant –

“Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising and, consequently, the purchasing power of currency is falling. Central banks attempt to limit inflation — and avoid deflation — in order to keep the economy running smoothly.”

Google said –

“What are the main causes of inflation?
Causes of Inflation

The Money Supply. Inflation is primarily caused by an increase in the money supply that outpaces economic growth. ...
The National Debt. ...
Demand-Pull Effect. ...
Cost-Push Effect. ...
Exchange Rates.”

Economicshelp.org said –

“Inflation is basically a rise in prices.

A more exact definition of inflation is a situation of a sustained increase in the general price level in an economy. Inflation means an increase in the cost of living as the price of goods and services rise.”

The list went on and on.

Dictionary.com said –

“1 · Economics. a persistent, substantial rise in the general level of prices related to an increase in the volume of money and resulting in the loss of value of a currency (opposed to deflation).”

Then I went to the Merriam-Webster Dictionary online (m-w.com). they said –

“2: a continuing rise in the general price level usually attributed to an increase in the volume of money and credit relative to available goods and services “

Then I took out my leather-bound edition of the New Webster’s Dictionary of the English Language

“an expansion of the volume of currency and bank credit, out of proportion to available goods and services, and resulting in a considerable and prolonged rise in prices, wages, and other costs.” Copyright 1975.

Rhetorically, do you think that the omission of the fact that inflation is caused by the action of a government printing more currency than it can back was an oversight? There cannot possibly be that many people in senior-level positions of the organizations positing the definition of inflation who don’t know that the government is its root cause. Therein lies the danger. If you were born after 1980 and taught in a public school in the USA you will not know that fact. I debated that fact with a bank manager at my bank. He asserted his MBA in finance telling me that inflation was a result of the financial imbalance of “many factors”. NO, NO, NO. It is the government printing currency that is backed by nothing, fiat currency, monopoly money!!! Words matter, understanding their meaning is crucial, not “I think” based on what you think it is by context.

The search for such a common term yielded a much more important lesson than its definition; you cannot depend upon electronic sources of information. Certainly, online sources cannot be trusted alone. Furthermore, even if you find hundreds of online sources that validate each other, that is no guarantee that they are correct. The amount of plagiarism, mimicry, and downright theft of content online is mindboggling.

Ray Bradbury had no idea when he wrote Fahrenheit 451 of the technological advances that were soon to come. The book is one of my favorites, everyone should read it. In an interview at Comic-Con he said that his inspiration was, “as a library person he was appalled by the images of Hitler burning books.”: That was the seed of the novel. Who would have known that the destruction of thought, stored knowledge, wisdom, and language would be affected by technology? The government does not have to burn the books because people throw them in the trash on their own volition. People don’t want books, they are cumbersome and expensive.

Conclusion:

When powerful publishers and electronic resources fail to preserve the meaning and context of the language WE MUST DO SO FOR OURSELVES. Unfortunately, there is a problem electronic documents are simple to erase, redact, and alter. Those alterations leave no trace of what was. In an instant change can be made without a trace of the preceding version. I have seen changes and deletions of entire videos, stories, words, etc. They were completely “disappeared.” I have told everyone that I know to buy several 1960’s hardcover dictionaries. Encyclopedias are good too. Ancient history does not change, but the way they present it does. Hard copies are indelible.

If you see a news article online and it is important, print a copy to the printer or better yet to pdf for safekeeping. The Las Vegas mass shooting incident was a powerful example. If you had saved the videos posted by witnesses on the street, moments after, you would have seen how they were all systematically removed over the next 24 hours. There are many free programs that allow you to print to pdf. Checkout Primo PDF or FoxIt Phantom PDF Printer, they are my favorites. When you go to print and article, you chose the program to print to PDF as the printer, name the file, and print. Voila you have hardcopy saved.

Save Western Civilization & Culture

Will Hemingway — Sat, 30 Jun 2018 06:16:15 +0000

(This article updated from an original article on willhemingway.com radio show site December 1996)

Looking around the Western Nations we see the clear evidence of the following cycle:

Strong men create good times,
Good times create weak men,
Weak men create hard times,
Hard times create strong men.

Sadly, the West has been successful for several generations allowing its peoples to become weak and slothful. They are squandering the success of their forebearers. They are so divorced from the pain and suffering required to create such success that they perceive no value in it. Sadly, they, we, will forfeit the wonders of our cultures forcing our successors to suffer and fight to regain what we already have.

Across millennia no successful advanced culture has survived the cycle. I believe that we have a chance to break that trend. Over the past 100 years man in the free world has made massive advances. Those advances in communication and technology, to name a few, are unmatched in recorded history. The success of the West has forever altered the way and means by which we learn and compare empirical data. If we learn to apply critical thinking, learn to discern fact from fallacy, and apply creative problem-solving skills our societies and cultures can survive.

Occam’s Razor: The answer which embraces the least assumptions is likely the right answer; the simplest answer is generally correct.

I believe that adherence to a set of stoic values is the answer that will save the West. Philosophers, politicians, and sociologists offer complex theories and predict doom and decay based upon a series of self-fulfilling hypothesis. I say apply the principle of Occam’s Razor, Stoic Values. As a Stoic my entire adult life, I have found the power of stoic values frees us from the "drama" and stress wrought from parabolic, emotion driven perspectives. The values guide us to curb the natural human desire for self-gratification. If you are able to override the desire for immediate pleasure and self-interest you will be able to succeed at levels otherwise unattainable. Self-reliance is the gift of living a stoic life. Freedom from destructive hedonistic pursuits and the clarity of mind which comes with it open immeasurable opportunities for greatness.

Maxim #26 & 27 Emotions, Stoicism, and Analytical Thinking Feelings ARE NOT FACTS

A key factor of Stoicism is the bridling of emotion. Emotion causes a lack of clarity, lacks analytical thought, and typically ignores logic. Stoicism teaches its practitioners to safely limit emotion to fair and thoughtful levels.

The common modern definition of Stoicism is the presentation of its four core virtues; moderation, courage, wisdom, and justice. I believe that Stoic life is the realization of Occam’s Razor. Stoicism is simple, a life of moderation, free of emotional, illogical mood swings and tantrums, calm, respectful, humble, and thoughtfulness is the goal. If one strives for and succeeds at that goal they are able to live ethically and, where necessary, mete out justice fairly and evenly. The stoic calm frees the mind of wasted pursuits and conflicts allowing the gathering of data, knowledge, and wisdom efficiently. Humility and just behavior being virtues, stoics are a positive force in society.

Basic Human Behaviors: Will’s Maxim # 10

The natural human desire to satiate their id is their downfall. Epicurus is often accused of being the antithesis of Stoicism. Wikipedia presents the Epicurean approach is a form of hedonism. That is not correct. Epicurus believed that pleasure was the greatest good. According to Epicurus, one may attain a state of ataraxia, (tranquility, peace,) freedom of fear, and an absence of aponia (bodily pain) through living a modest life, awareness of sociology and human nature, and finally limiting your desires. In fact, that sounds awfully close to how Cicero; one of the iconic fathers of the Stoic movement, explained Stoicism.

Freud's Theory of the Id The id is the part of personality, that through the unconscious mind, focuses on fulfilling urges and desires

Hedonism is a key component of leftist population control. Trotsky, Hitler, Marx, Lenin, Stalin, and Mao all pushed drugs, sexual promiscuity, and other hedonistic behaviors on the young. Lenin said that if they softened the youth, with those things, they would be able to do whatever they wanted to the populace within a generation without a fight. They were right. I am not arguing for a Puritanical way of life, not at all. Simply put, we need to teach our young and remind the rest of the populace, that living stoically will yield far more success and happiness than hedonistic pursuits. This is battle for the long game, not short lived pleasures.

The way we win is not by waiting for the nanny state or government to do this. We must stand up and take charge. Lead by example, renew your commitment, teach your children, and present the idea to others every day. It will run like a virus. Most people want to feel empowered and happy. Give them the tools and understanding to attain those desires in a fulfilling and lasting way.

#SaveWesternCivilization

The Power of Civil Dialectic and Conversation

Will Hemingway — Wed, 20 Jun 2018 18:46:47 +0000

Recently, I made a rare Facebook visit to see what I had "missed." I read a post by a friend on her page. She was lamenting the way people behaved when she and others responded to "friend’s" postings regarding a perennially controversial, touchstone, social, and political issue. Many of the responders to her posting reflected the basic idea that they "just keep scrolling until you see a cat video" (paraphrasing). I was so troubled by the way that thoughtful people are cowed into silence, from civil dissent and conversation, (cowed – manipulated by fear of threats, violence, etc.; intimidated). Such silence threatens our Republic and culture.

Civil dialectic and verbal intercourse are highly stimulating. They excite the mind to learn, investigate, and grow as a person benefiting the whole of society. Free societies only exist through the basic rights of free speech, the right to own property, the right to self-protection, etc. The willful silencing of those who civilly dissent is a threat to all free societies.

During the 1950’s, 60’s, and 70’s colleges and even high schools taught debating. People would compete for school pride with other schools in debate events. All students were taught refined skills of civil debate. Those skills armed them with a practiced ability to interact with the world at large which regularly presents them with dissenting beliefs and opinions. Since then there has been a subtle retreat from free discussion and debate. Two entire generations have lost the skill of deep, civil, verbal discourse. The evidence of that deficit is obvious in nearly every corner of today’s Western society.

Civil dissent is not expressed through blocking traffic, breaking shop windows, burning vehicles, or threatening violence against the opposition. If people devolve into such behavior, their opposition, over time, will lose their patience and composure. They will eventually respond in kind. We need civil discourse to maintain a civil society, not sound bites, shallow rhetoric, or “gotcha moments.” The only way that controversial issues will be resolved is for both parties to honestly cooperate in a DIALECTIC thoughtful discourse. The outcome is not a winner and a loser, it is the correct resolution, supported by implacable facts.

Sadly, modern mass media and academia has inundated Western culture with an endless stream of images with the intent to normalize the behaviors of a subset of society. The favorite images of hypersensitive, safe space, teddy bear hugging people who fall into depression and childish violent tantrums when presented with dissenting views. They have no problem pushing their views on you. The prevailing narrative is clearly intended to normalize such weak and lazy behaviors. Freedom, civility, and its supporting order depend upon hard work, difficult choices, an engaged population, and a continual straightforward dialectic.

Such problems are solely an ailment of first world nations. In the rest of the world people are busy with important concerns; survival, food, shelter, water, safety, and security. Residents of first world countries can live in their parent’s basements at 35 years of age. The parents and a successful society enable them in the avoidance of labor and engagement in productive endeavors. Those same people believe they have the right to rail about inequities, “fairness,” and “rights”, all the while failing to contribute to the same. People who live self-reliantly have no time to waste on gel nails, bedazzled iPhone covers, and 20-inch spinner wheels. Only opulent, pampered people in nations where the bulk of society is engaged in the work of creation, generation, and the future is it possible for others to “opt-out.” Anywhere else they would struggle and produce or die.

The simple ability to spend so much valuable time on such trivial issues is strictly a result of living in a first world country.

Unfortunately, a predominant number of those "defining" the narrative are not attempting to establish a dialectic ("a way of discovering what is true by considering opposite theories" and empirical data), or even a civil debate. They have no interest in coming to a consensus of the minds. They thrust their ideology upon you refusing any dissent or disagreement. Those who are well versed in a subject relish the opportunity to “change hearts and minds” civilly. Even when misguided they relish the opportunity to sway opinion and positions. A firm grasp on the facts, empirical data, and language is required. Emotional outbursts and rhetoric are commonly deployed as distractions to obscure their true intentions. Most of the time their approach betrays their lack of depth on the topic. They often only know the talking points or their "feelings".

Civilized societies only survive through a complex dance of dialectic, cultural preservation, and law. Empirical data not statistics, facts not feelings, objective versus subjective. Those who fear a dialectic are either uninformed, shallow, or have more insidious intentions.

Conversation is healthy. Sadly, one of greatest threats to accuracy is for people to surround themselves with only those who agree with them. How will you ever detect a flaw in your stance? A change in the data? Only through trial by comparison to opposing views in a civil discourse.Discerning people who are trustworthy, loyal, and honest is a daunting challenge. These highly divisive topics have a silver lining. Those who are exploring the data around the topics and engaging in thoughtful dialectic can apply those results to help fashion well designed solutions. We also have a rare opportunity to cull those who are wolves waiting in the shadows of our hen house. They lay in wait for the moment where their self-interests exceed the value they place on yours. DO NOT SQUANDER THE OPPORTUNITY TO PURGE YOUR CLOSE CIRCLE OF THREATS FROM WITHIN. Part of that approach might be to begin by defining “friend” from acquaintance. Such identification is critical to your survival, happiness, and sanity.

Those who get angry, unfriend, name call, or worse show you their true colors and are likely warning you of other threats to you and your circle. All humans, especially those in close proximity, will eventually disagree. It is how we process and manage those disagreements that make us civil and defines those who are worthy to be in your world from the threats.

The lessons that we learn affect the way that we interact with others. Self-interest is critical for your survival, those for whom you care, and society. You cannot help others, if you are disabled yourself.

Unbridled altruism will disable you if you are not careful, please refer to the article entitled; Survival, Altruism, and Self Interest for more on the topic.

Dunbar’s Number

Will Hemingway — Sun, 18 Feb 2018 00:14:34 +0000

What is Dunbar's Number and why do we care?

Dunbar's Number is validated every time that we observe crime rates and corruption in large urban area. Cities cram many people into very dense units. Exponential increases in both the frequency and intensity of crime, violence, and more is evident in the cities, just as revealed in Dunbar's studies. Still urban planners continue to strive to pack more people into smaller areas. Dispite the mounting evidence of negative human consequences, the plans put forth by many urban planners, developers, and even the UN are based on the plan to jam 80% of the world’s population into 20% of the land. That plan is known as UN Agenda 2030 (previously known as Agenda 21).

Ignorance to Dunbar’s number and the other correlated theorems will not change the outcome. 200,000 years of historical data prove that Dunbar’s number is a good starting point. The 80/20 plan will yield only one possible outcome, the need for more policing, government regulation, oversight, and controls. The crime, violence, and antisocial behaviors associated with such high-density populations is intense. I am writing an article on my idea of "Mesh Network Societies", stay tuned.

Dunbar’s rule states that when societies/groups exceed 148 members bad things begin to emerge in the social interactions. Violence, sexual perversions, deceit, theft, and much more tear apart the sub-148-member group’s previously peaceful tranquility.

Dunbar’s Number plays an important part in the crafting of cohesive social unit. Understanding the significant causality and effect of Dunbar’s number is the very important. It is the postulated cognitive limit to a person's social circle, the number of people with whom a person can maintain stable social relationships.

Perspectives in Leadership and Group / Cohesion Survival

Despite the ubiquitous use of technology, Dunbar’s Number is bolstered by the Allen Curve which demonstrates a massive drop in communication between group members as the distance between them increases. Conversely, if they spend time in the presence of a person they are likely to keep in contact via other means when they are apart, short term.

There are many lessons to be learned for leaders. If you are not a leader, knowing the signs of good leadership and the earmarks of a solid cohesive unit will help you to choose wisely with whom you align yourself for the best survival results.

British anthropologist Robin Dunbar, first posited his research findings in 1992. He discovered a correlation between primate brain size and the mean average size of their social group. In his paper, "Co-Evolution of Neocortex Size Group Size and Language in Humans”, he hypothesized a predictive mean group size for humans (Dunbar’s Number) at 147.8. Dunbar studied census evidence, spanning from the Pleistocene humans 200,000 + years ago through the present time. His theorem, known as the Dunbar Number, is based upon research studying primate groups, primitive human villages, cultures, and tribes.

The research focused on neocortex size and its relationship to a perceived cognitive limit related to the number of individuals with whom anyone person can maintain stable relationships. While language played a part in the social group and its cohesion, primatologists and sociologists observed some troubling results when the numbers rose over 138. Testing with both non-human primates and humans Dunbar discovered Dunbar's number, a 95% confidence interval of between 100 and 230. Dunbar believed after all his research that the optimum / “sweet spot” predicted “mean” social group number for humans was 148.

Research focused on defining the building blocks of successful social unit cohesion; what makes a group/clan/society survive and succeed as a unit together. Anthropologists, linguists, engineers, technologists, primatologists, sociologists, and many others have tested, studied, and studied the phenomena and always prove out Dunbar’s number. There is a voluminous amount of peer reviewed research supporting Dunbar. We, as did countless researchers, see innumerable examples of this in play all around us.

Dunbar's number has been popularized in countless business and management books around the world. Creative license has popularized Dunbar's number as 150. The number is often referred to as the tipping point.

One of the most intriguing stories that Malcolm Gladwell related in his book; “The Tipping Point” was about the company who manufactures Gore-Tex. The company, in an effort to increase profit and efficiency, discovered through a process of elimination, that Dunbar’s Number was the key to their quest. They broke their workforce up into 150-person groups. Each building housed 150 employees, as they said, “Each time the 150 parking spots were filled, we built another building”. They were highly successful.

Surveys of village and tribe sizes validate that nearly all Neolithic farming villages, Hutterite settlements, and even professional armies in Roman antiquity limited themselves to 150 as the basic unit size. This was not a coincidence.

Check out the article entitled: Perspectives in Leadership and Group / Cohesion Survival the article outlines how the theories and rules below may act as building blocks in the formation of a powerful and successful cohesive unit / society:

Dunbar's number
The Allen Curve
Émile Durkheim's The Division of Labor in Society - Mechanical and Organic Society - The Mechanical Society is the best for the people, Organic Society protects the government/society
Ferdinand Tönnies two conceptual models for types of human association: Gemeinschaft and Gesellschaft.
Lenski's theories of sociological evolution
The Hawthorne 1924 studies (extremely important insight)
Peace Among Primates, read the section regarding natural born killers
Pitirim Aleksandrovich Sorokin sounded the alarm about the trends of modern materialism

"Co-Evolution of Neocortex Size Group Size and Language in Humans”

The Blame Game

Will Hemingway — Wed, 24 Jan 2018 08:42:36 +0000

A Japanese friend related an idiom to me, while working in his country, I have repeated it for years. Old Japanese saying, “In Japan we fix problem, not blame.”

Blame is the game. Why? Blame is a low form of critique. It is a form of distraction. A disingenuous competitor will apply a barrage of blame upon their opponent. The intent of the accusers is to make their opponent so busy fending off the attack (blame) that they are hindered from presenting their superior skills or offering. Their supporters will be so distracted by the vapid spectacle that they never notice that attackers have nothing better to offer.

This is a common play in the political arena. It is sad because they repeat this same old tired passion play and no one ever calls them out, let alone notices the emptiness of their actions. If the naysayers really are so much better than those that they are blaming, prove it, bring it on! Do something constructive! Show me the plan. Tell me what you would do. Do not tell me what “they” did not do and how you are so much better. Tell me, what should be done, how, why, how much will it cost? No! They just want power.

Do not fall into the trap. Think! Demand substance!

Perspectives in Leadership and Group / Cohesion Survival

Will Hemingway — Fri, 05 Jan 2018 06:48:28 +0000

Social Cohesion by the Numbers – Dunbar’s and the Allen Curve

Executive Summary:

The building blocks of a powerful and successful cohesive societal unit are a combination of the theorems below:

Dunbar's number
The Allen Curve
Émile Durkheim's The Division of Labor in Society - Mechanical and Organic Society - The Mechanical Society is the best for the people, Organic Society protects the government/society
Ferdinand Tönnies two conceptual models for types of human association: Gemeinschaft and Gesellschaft
Lenski's theories of sociological evolution
The Hawthorne 1924 studies (extremely important insight)
Peace Among Primates, read the section regarding natural born killers
Pitirim Aleksandrovich Sorokin sounded the alarm about the trends of modern materialism

Even if you do not wish to lead,
you must understand the theorems
listed above if you wish to survive.

Dunbar’s Number plays an important part in the crafting of cohesive social unit. Understanding the significance of the causality and effect of Dunbar’s number is the very important. The postulated cognitive limit to the number of people with whom a person can maintain stable social relationships is enlightening.

We see the validation of the Dunbar Number every time that we look at a large urban area. Cities cram many people into very dense units. Crime, violence, and more is evident just as in the studies. Yet in the plans put forth by many planners, including the UN, they plan to jam 80% of the world’s population into 20% of the land.

The Allen Curve, developed by an MIT Professor Thomas J. Allen, is a graphical demonstration of how the level, quality, and frequency of communication decreases exponentially between people as the distance between them increases.

The Allen Curve supports the Dunbar Number.

Allen’s book (co-written with G. Henn) entitled “The Organization and Architecture of Innovation: Managing the Flow of Technology” they revisited the Allen Curve years later in 2006 and found the following:

"For example, rather than finding that the probability of telephone communication increases with distance, as face-to-face probability decays, our data show a decay in the use of all communication media with distance (following a "near-field" rise)." [p. 58]
"We do not keep separate sets of people, some of whom we communicate with by one medium and some by another. The more often we see someone face-to-face, the more likely it is that we will also telephone that person or communicate by another medium." [p. 58]

For extra credit reading, check out Peace Among Primates, written by Robert M Sapolsky Ph.D. at Stanford University. Specifically focus on the section regarding natural born killers. (There is a well written article on the book, click here to read). In the article entitled “Why are people brutal?” I explain some of the other factors that are enhanced or out rightly provoked by exceeding the Dunbar Number.

There is no silver bullet when it comes to forming a cohesive unit or society. Humans are complex creatures with countless underlying propensities, strengths, and deficiencies. No single theorem stands alone. Together they may serve as arrows in your quiver. As a planning strategy, these time-tested and well vetted theorems can help us to understand and develop better and more cohesive teams. They are tools applicable in every form of human interaction from clubs and clans, to military units and societies.

As stated in the body of this article, the theories and rules below may act as building blocks in the formation of a powerful and successful cohesive unit / society:

Dunbar's number
The Allen Curve
Émile Durkheim's The Division of Labor in Society - Mechanical and Organic Society
Ferdinand Tönnies two conceptual models for types of human association: Gemeinschaft and Gesellschaft.
Lenski's theories of sociological evolution
The Hawthorne 1924 studies (extremely important insight)
Peace Among Primates, read the section regarding natural born killers
Pitirim Aleksandrovich Sorokin sounded the alarm about the trends of modern materialism

How Visual and Audible Inputs Alter Perception

Will Hemingway — Sat, 30 Dec 2017 07:39:59 +0000

In hopes of expanding your understanding of how visual and verbal inputs completely alter your perspectives and reality I have chosen one of my favorite quirky movies to help elucidate the premise. Observe the power of perception. The tale speaks to what I believe is an important lesson in life, one of my signature phrases: “Perception is reality. Reality is perception.”

The movie The Grand Budapest Hotel based on the book, “The Society of the Crossed Keys” is a colorful tale following the adventures of Gustave H, an influential concierge at

You see? There are still faint glimmers of civilization left in this barbaric slaughterhouse that was once known as humanity. Indeed, that's what we provide in our own modest, humble, insignificant way

The Grand Budapest Hotel; a European hotel. The story is bookended between the first and second world wars. The “lowly” lobby boy, a key character, becomes Gustav H’s (the prime character) most trusted friend. Throughout the story and adventures Gustav H adheres to a very rigid and “civilized” code of honor. The belief that no matter how lowly you are in your station in life, you are elevated through the act of being a “gentleman’ and civilized.

The loyalty between various “Established Hotel” concierge’ around the world sets the tone for the way that civilized behavior is developed as a means of language, compromise, established loyalty, and the perception of being something greater than oneself. To many of the hotel’s patrons the Concierge and bell boys are “lowly servants.” The movie vividly depicts how through living their code, their loyalty, and pride in action they create an entirely alternative world that the patrons rarely see. They are far more respectable and respectful than most of the patrons. They are privy to the quirks, vices, and failings of the patrons. All the while they are discrete, dignified, and respectful. That is the power of belief and principles. As principles to paint perception, they can change the entire “reality.”

Gustav H the main character in the movie takes you through a series of clearly Machiavellian situations where his behaviors assault the senses of a “moral person”. (See Article on Machiavelli.) Yet at the same time he does so with dignity, the utmost in service to his patrons, and stern adherence to the principles of his duties, discretion, and loyalty.

I have seen many times, especially in Eastern Europe where the “belief” in the superior nature or stature of an edifice or person was enough to elevate that edifice or person to a place of influence and respect. All of that, in spite of no good reason or explanation of why it should deserve such status. ‘Belief” is a driving force, a collective belief or perception can send men to the gallows and women to the stake. It causes people to take their own life when they feel that they can go no further.

Rationalization is borne from perception; preexisting biases can skew your perception. Your view and other external factors may also alter your perception erroneously. The skewed perception may then support the rationalization of “bad” actions.

"To be frank, I think his world had vanished long before he ever entered it – but, I will say: he certainly sustained the illusion with a marvelous grace!" (Grand Budapest Hotel)

Gustave H’s entire image and social construct is predicated upon a reality that existed only in his mind. That said he “created” the same construct for his guests by the sheer force of his will and perception. The quote on the right is a great example of how Gustav created the world that he desired.

Once I spent seven straight hours on surveillance. I kept copious, detailed notes about the subject. When he moved, I moved. Near the end of the day the light was fading and I removed my sunglasses. Shock!!! I suddenly realized that none of the colors that I recorded were even remotely accurate. I had to rewrite 10 pages of notes to fix the perceptual error. Lesson learned.

Why is someone evil? Stupid? Wonderful? Etc.? Is it your belief because you have experienced it first hand, on repeated occasions? Is it because your friend, who never met them either, or the news repeater told you on the TV? (modern TV news personalities repeat from a written script, they don't report) Would you put that person to death? With that level of proof? Would you want to be found guilty that way?

Once you are able to recognize how your perception can be skewed, you should realize that the only solution to the conundrum is to employ many people, with many perceptions. Doing so will allow you, working in concert to form a more objective point of view tamping down the preexisting biases and frame of reference. By employing such an approach, you are able to more reliably identify and assess complex and simple things rapidly, objectively, and accurately. Mastering this concept will uniquely position you in a place that can protect and help you as well as others who you can teach. Always remember as Ronald Regan repeatedly told Michael Gorbachev the Russian proverb, "Доверяй, но проверяй" {Doveryai, no proveryai} (trust, but verify). This you too should practice. Always remain aware that perception is reality, and reality is based primarily upon your perception. You should resultantly be more flexible with your thought processes and teach yourself to gather maximum data in order to assure rapid progression from one perception to another. That skill, well-practiced, will significantly enhance your intellectual and physical performance in the “real world”.

In closing, I present below a great video that I found after writing this article which utilizes the movie Grand Budapest Hotel to elucidate my point through careful visual analysis. I hope that you enjoy and that this article has “stimulated your little grey cells”.

The movie is truly a glorious comedy laced with light and dark humor, love, loyalty, and wonderment of a day and life long past. Below is one of my favorite dark humor scenes with Willem Dafoe playing the nearly mute strongman.